Winter Weather Resources

This is what I use to make my snow total predictions. They are listed by model and then I compare the 10:1 (standard 10 inches of snow for 1 inch of water precipitation). I also use the Kuchera models which try to estimate more accurately how much snow we get based on how much moisture is in each snowflake. A tend to average them somewhat for a better picture.

NOTE: I need to make this cleaner and describe how I use the models yet.

  • MPX Winter Weather – not many areas have a page like this, but it really packages the upcoming system quite nicely for you.
  • MPX Winter Storm Severity Index – This is a good place to learn how bad the system will be.
  • Windy – a simpler way to view the models and still use many of the models I am using below.

NOTE: All of these models are set up to be centered on the midwest. There are other regions available. You will just have to select the region on the website.

GFS

 Global Forecast System (GFS) couples four separate models (atmosphere, ocean model, land/soil model, and sea ice) that work together to accurately depict weather conditions and has the longest look into the future. It can be useful to see the possible weather conditions several days into the future. However, remember that the further into the future you go, the less accurate it is.

NAM

North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) is a regional model for North America: Unites States, Canada, and Mexico, produced by the American weather service called the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). It provides a better view of North America to provide a more accurate view.

NAM 3km

A more realistic view of the NAM models.

HRRR

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) The HRRR is a NOAA real-time 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving, convection-allowing atmospheric model. Radar data is assimilated in the HRRR every 15 min over a 1-h period adding further detail to that provided by the hourly data assimilation from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Refresh. This leads to a more accurate look at the forecast models.

GDPS (Canadian)

Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) is also called the “Canadian Model”.

Mastodon
© 2024 Mike Wills.