It looks like the bulk of this system is going to the west of us. I think you can expect an inch or two through tomorrow.
The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities seems to confirm that.
There seems to be a lot in the air yet for the system over the weekend. I have seen a wide range of totals. I won’t be trying to do any predictions on that until tomorrow at the earliest. In the meantime, KEYC has just released this:
The NWS Weather Page has the following information for the whole weekend. This includes some posibility of ice.
Really pay attention to this system as there are a lot of unknowns yet. I have a feeling they won’t know more until Saturday morning about what to expect.
Until tomorrow night, stay weather aware.
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Friday’s storm keeps moving and Sunday’s storm has too many variables to predict. I will be looking tonight at tomorrow’s storm and get you my prediction. It looks like Sunday’s storm could move a few miles and we could get dumped on.
So I measured 8 inches today in my driveway. I have it all cleared out and ready for the next storm.
These are just preliminary numbers and I think they will be adjusting the predictions above. It’s looking like the Friday system will go north of us leaving us with just a dusting of snow. If it slides south we could easily get an inch or two.
The system behind that will bring more significant snow in the range of about 6 inches.
I’m as happy as you are.
Stay tuned for the latest updates and stay weather aware.
So I am poking around the models seeing how much snow we might get. Let’s look at the models.
The GFS 10:1 ratio (1 inch of rain to 10 inches of snow) shows Mankato getting 6 inches.
The GFS Kuchera Ratio (a more algorithmic calculation) is saying closer to 8.5.
GFS in some circles isn’t known to be the best. So lets look at the NAM which has a better rep.
Again the 10:1 is saying 6 inches.
The Kuchera is saying 9.1 inches.
The other big model is the European model. Unfortunately, Pivotal Weather and Tropical Tidbits don’t have similar models for snow accumulation. So let’s look at Windy.
I believe this is the 10:1 model and it’s also saying 6.5 inches.
With that, I am going to match what most have been saying and keep the estimate at 6-9 inches of snow in the Mankato area.
Looking forward to the “big storm” it’s hard to tell as the models keep moving. What is known is that it is a bigger storm. How much depends on where it goes. At one point Windy had us pegged at about 18 inches of snow, that has gone down as the totals moved east. But it’s still several days away and the models will change quite a bit before then.
Until then, always keep updated and stay weather aware.
I am not happy either, but there are two more systems coming this week in to the weekend. The first one is Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing about 4-5 or so inches.
The second one, and PLEASE don’t shoot the messenger, will be Saturday into Sunday. KSTP is saying this the biggest storm of the season bringing 18 inches of snow. Now realize that is is a week out and things can really change.
It currently appears like we’ll get some more snow. Somewhere in the vicinity of 1 to 5 inches on the very high side based on the latest GFS models. I’m sure the NWS will release more details in the next day or so. Until then here is the models I was looking at.
Take note that these models have changed a lot lately and this is WAY to far out to get accurate predictions.
I am looking into the future for snow. I can see some, but it isn’t until early next week. As all know that is too far out to predict. Even the snow that was coming for Friday seems to have fizzled out.