Potential for a Strong Storm this Weekend

Update: Now it’s looking more like rain than snow, but could easily change again. I’ll keep you updated.

Looking ahead, this week seems to be cold, but not too bad with a warming trend. However, this weekend, there is a potential for a strong winter storm.

This one is lining up much like the one that dumped on us a couple of weeks ago.

Currently there is even a potential for some stronger winds with this system as well.

This IS a week away and could change drastically, so stay tuned in and I’ll be sure to keep you up-to-date.

Always stay weather aware.

Sorry to say this… more snow

Now that we have this system out of the way (sort of ), time to look forward to what’s next. It isn’t pretty.

On Monday, we’ll get a little system sometime after noon. It should be an inch or less.

On Tuesday, another system will move in with probably 1-3 inches of snow.

Thursday will bring another system and another 1-3 inches.

Friday afternoon into Saturday will bring yet another system bringing another 5 or so inches and I have also been hearing about more strong winds possibly bringing another blizzard with this sysetm.

As always, these are preliminary numbers. To make things worse there are two systems the week of March 10th that are looking to be bigger systems again.

Stay tuned to keep up to date. Always be weather aware.

Snow tonight into tomorrow expect 1-2 inches

It looks like the bulk of this system is going to the west of us. I think you can expect an inch or two through tomorrow.

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities seems to confirm that.

There seems to be a lot in the air yet for the system over the weekend. I have seen a wide range of totals. I won’t be trying to do any predictions on that until tomorrow at the earliest. In the meantime, KEYC has just released this:

The NWS Weather Page has the following information for the whole weekend. This includes some posibility of ice.

Really pay attention to this system as there are a lot of unknowns yet. I have a feeling they won’t know more until Saturday morning about what to expect.

Until tomorrow night, stay weather aware.

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Looking forward to the next storms

So I measured 8 inches today in my driveway. I have it all cleared out and ready for the next storm.

These are just preliminary numbers and I think they will be adjusting the predictions above. It’s looking like the Friday system will go north of us leaving us with just a dusting of snow. If it slides south we could easily get an inch or two.

The system behind that will bring more significant snow in the range of about 6 inches.

I’m as happy as you are.

Stay tuned for the latest updates and stay weather aware.

Are you ready for this? I’m not

So I am poking around the models seeing how much snow we might get. Let’s look at the models.

The GFS 10:1 ratio (1 inch of rain to 10 inches of snow) shows Mankato getting 6 inches.

The GFS Kuchera Ratio (a more algorithmic calculation) is saying closer to 8.5.

GFS in some circles isn’t known to be the best. So lets look at the NAM which has a better rep.

Again the 10:1 is saying 6 inches.

The Kuchera is saying 9.1 inches.

The other big model is the European model. Unfortunately, Pivotal Weather and Tropical Tidbits don’t have similar models for snow accumulation. So let’s look at Windy.

I believe this is the 10:1 model and it’s also saying 6.5 inches.

With that, I am going to match what most have been saying and keep the estimate at 6-9 inches of snow in the Mankato area.

Looking forward to the “big storm” it’s hard to tell as the models keep moving. What is known is that it is a bigger storm. How much depends on where it goes. At one point Windy had us pegged at about 18 inches of snow, that has gone down as the totals moved east. But it’s still several days away and the models will change quite a bit before then.

Until then, always keep updated and stay weather aware.