I am not sure how close you watched this storm, but it was a weird one. I was sort of paying attention to the storm estimated totals throughout the prediction cycle.
It started out at 3-4 inches, moved to 2-3 inches last night sometime. As I was looking at the models, I was seeing zero to maybe an inch which the NWS confirmed in the morning with a similar estimate. When I blew snow tonight, it looked more like 3-4 inches.
This storm is a prime example of why forecasting is hard. The conditions were changing so rapidly, it was hard for the models and the forecasts to keep up.
If I find more of the science of why this happened, I can share it with you.
Updated: Looking at the models this morning, it’s starting to realign with what the NWS is predicting, but it’s still MUCH less. I still think we will get an inch maybe 2.
They are saying we are supposed to get snow tomorrow. I am not convinced. Based on what I have heard it’ll start snowing sometime in the morning, after the rush hour in the cities. They say we’ll get 3-4 inches.
Diving in a bit more into their predictions, here in the Mankato area we should be getting about 3 inches.
Looking at the models that I have been using, I am not convinced we’ll get much. Looking at the latest models, it’s showing that we’ll get a dusting if that.
Another model is still showing 3 inches, so who really knows for sure.
My prediction will be a dusting of snow to maybe an inch based on what I see.
Looking forward into Thursday… that’s a different story. Windy is saying, in total, we might be getting up to 10 inches of snow over the next 10 days. Looking at the models, I am seeing somewhere between 3-7 inches so far.
Looking past this c-c-c–coooold for our next storm, I didn’t have to look too far. Sometime Sunday into Monday we should be getting measurable snow again. It’s too far out for any sort of prediction, but stay tuned. I am sure that the NWS and local media will be talking about it Friday into Saturday with better idea of totals.
Looking at everything again tonight. I am not seeing much changes from yesterday. Some media outlets are saying up to 10 inches others are staying at the more conservative at 6-8 inches. Either way, try to avoid travel if you can. I am still thinking 6 inches for the Mankato area. Remember, for more updates you can visit the NWS page and their Winter Weather page.