Around 7 Inches of Snow Coming

Looking forward to tomorrow, more snow will be coming and this will be a bigger system dumping more snow on us.

Tab3FileL.png

I am pretty sure this will change yet and will narrow in on totals tomorrow morning. If we look at Windy, we are seeing around 7 inches of snow.

Screen Shot 2019-02-05 at 9.57.46 PM

Looking at the models you can see again that this is probably accurate.

snku_acc.us_nc.png

Taking a look at the timing seems to fall around 6 pm tomorrow, but again, I’m sure the NWS will release more details on this in the morning.

ea039540-12da-40af-8806-88e2ce875f55.gif

Stay tuned into my page and the NWS page for details on this storm and keep informed and always be weather aware.

Forecasting can be Hard!

I am not sure how close you watched this storm, but it was a weird one. I was sort of paying attention to the storm estimated totals throughout the prediction cycle.

It started out at 3-4 inches, moved to 2-3 inches last night sometime. As I was looking at the models, I was seeing zero to maybe an inch which the NWS confirmed in the morning with a similar estimate. When I blew snow tonight, it looked more like 3-4 inches.

This storm is a prime example of why forecasting is hard. The conditions were changing so rapidly, it was hard for the models and the forecasts to keep up.

If I find more of the science of why this happened, I can share it with you.

A Possibility of Snow Tomorrow

Updated: Looking at the models this morning, it’s starting to realign with what the NWS is predicting, but it’s still MUCH less. I still think we will get an inch maybe 2.

They are saying we are supposed to get snow tomorrow. I am not convinced. Based on what I have heard it’ll start snowing sometime in the morning, after the rush hour in the cities. They say we’ll get 3-4 inches.

Diving in a bit more into their predictions, here in the Mankato area we should be getting about 3 inches.

Looking at the models that I have been using, I am not convinced we’ll get much. Looking at the latest models, it’s showing that we’ll get a dusting if that.

And my favorite site Windy agrees with that.

Another model is still showing 3 inches, so who really knows for sure.

My prediction will be a dusting of snow to maybe an inch based on what I see.

Looking forward into Thursday… that’s a different story. Windy is saying, in total, we might be getting up to 10 inches of snow over the next 10 days. Looking at the models, I am seeing somewhere between 3-7 inches so far.


Be weather aware!

Possibility of Measurable Snow Sunday into Monday

Looking past this c-c-ccoooold for our next storm, I didn’t have to look too far. Sometime Sunday into Monday we should be getting measurable snow again. It’s too far out for any sort of prediction, but stay tuned. I am sure that the NWS and local media will be talking about it Friday into Saturday with better idea of totals.

Snow until tomorrow then COLD

We are just about 1/2 through the snow storm as I write this. NWS has the Mankato area listed as still getting 3-4 inches of snow and 4-6 just east of us.

Here is what the NWS is saying for what to expect tonight into tomorrow.

Then the cold will hit us hard. Remember, we live in MN because we don’t get hurricanes, we don’t have alligators, and we don’t have (as many) poisonious snakes.

Stay warm my friends…

No Changes from Yesterday’s Prediction

Looking at everything again tonight. I am not seeing much changes from yesterday. Some media outlets are saying up to 10 inches others are staying at the more conservative at 6-8 inches. Either way, try to avoid travel if you can. I am still thinking 6 inches for the Mankato area.
Remember, for more updates you can visit the NWS page and their Winter Weather page.

This might be on the extreme side, but gives an idea of the path.

New Snow Storm on the Way and Extreme Cold behind it

You may have already heard, we are getting more snow. Here is what the NWS is saying:

Don’t forget about the NWS Weather page which is saying 7 inches with a 50% chance of over 8 inches.

Now, I haven’t looked to see if this band is moving or in which direction if it is, but it’s looking like we are getting nailed.

GFS model is saying 6-10 inches with us right in the crosshairs.

GFS Model using the 10:1 Ration (10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain)
GFS Model using the Kuchera method

Looking at my favorite website, they are saying 6 inches.

ECMWF Model
GFS Model

Between what the professionals say and what I am seeing here, we are getting a bunch of snow.

…but wait… there’s more!

The cold is coming next week and our wind chills could get as low as 60 below 0.

As always, stay weather aware and stay warm!