Forecasting can be Hard!

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I am not sure how close you watched this storm, but it was a weird one. I was sort of paying attention to the storm estimated totals throughout the prediction cycle.

It started out at 3-4 inches, moved to 2-3 inches last night sometime. As I was looking at the models, I was seeing zero to maybe an inch which the NWS confirmed in the morning with a similar estimate. When I blew snow tonight, it looked more like 3-4 inches.

This storm is a prime example of why forecasting is hard. The conditions were changing so rapidly, it was hard for the models and the forecasts to keep up.

If I find more of the science of why this happened, I can share it with you.

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